logic & reasoning
the monty hall problem
three doors, one car, and the most counter-intuitive switch in probability.
A game show. Behind one of three doors waits a car; behind the other two, goats. You choose a door. The host, who knows where the car is, then opens one of the doors you did not pick, always revealing a goat, and offers you the chance to switch to the last remaining door. Should you? The answer offended thousands of mathematicians when it was published in 1990. Play a few rounds, then run the numbers.
A handful of games proves nothing; the noise drowns the signal. Settle it with volume:
further reading
- monty hall problem wikipedia